5-season decay-weighted cover rate (most recent season weighted heaviest). Spread data from 2021–22 onward. HOT/COLD requires most recent season ≥ 10 games and >5 pts from weighted avg.
Cover %
45.5%
147 games
As Favorite
39.1%
46 games
As Underdog
50.0%
100 games
Recent Season
35.7%
2025-26
Current Season
35.7%
28 games · 2025-26
Trend
COLD
Fails to cover the spread slightly more often than not.
Season-by-season
Season
School
W
L
Win%
WAB
WAP
TASE
Seed
ATS
Furthest RoundNCAA
Final Four LocationF4 Location
►2026-27
Rider
0
0
0.0000.00
—
—
—
—
—
Detroit, MI
►2025-26
Rider
4
25
0.1380.14
-17.7
-5.0
—
—
-2.98
No NCAA
Indianapolis, IN
►2024-25
Rider
14
19
0.4240.42
-11.9
+0.5
—
—
-0.58
No NCAA
San Antonio, TX
►2023-24
Rider
15
17
0.4690.47
-8.2
+0.3
—
—
+1.39
No NCAA
Phoenix, AZ
►2022-23
Rider
16
14
0.5330.53
-7.4
+0.3
—
—
+1.28
No NCAA
Houston, TX
►2021-22
Rider
14
19
0.4240.42
-10.2
-2.5
—
—
+0.16
No NCAA
New Orleans, LA
►2020-21
Rider
6
17
0.2610.26
-11.7
-1.2
—
—
-0.07
No NCAA
Indianapolis, IN
►2019-20
Rider
18
12
0.6000.60
-4.6
—
—
—
—
COVID
Atlanta, GA
►2018-19
Rider
16
15
0.5160.52
-7.2
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Minneapolis, MN
►2017-18
Rider
22
10
0.6880.69
-0.1
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
San Antonio, TX
►2016-17
Rider
18
15
0.5450.55
-6.8
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Phoenix, AZ
►2015-16
Rider
13
20
0.3940.39
-10.5
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Houston, TX
►2014-15
Rider
21
12
0.6360.64
-1.6
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Indianapolis, IN
►2013-14
Rider
14
17
0.4520.45
-7.5
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Arlington, TX
►2012-13
Rider
19
15
0.5590.56
-3.6
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Atlanta, GA
Abbreviations: R64=Round of 64, R32=Round of 32, S16=Sweet 16, E8=Elite 8, FF=Final Four, CG=Championship Game (runner-up or champion). 🏆 indicates a national title. Gold highlight = Final Four appearance or better.