5-season decay-weighted cover rate (most recent season weighted heaviest). Spread data from 2021–22 onward. HOT/COLD requires most recent season ≥ 10 games and >5 pts from weighted avg.
Cover %
45.5%
171 games
As Favorite
45.3%
106 games
As Underdog
46.2%
65 games
Recent Season
42.4%
2025-26
Current Season
42.4%
33 games · 2025-26
Fails to cover the spread slightly more often than not.
Season-by-season
Season
School
W
L
Win%
WAB
WAP
TASE
Seed
ATS
Furthest RoundNCAA
Final Four LocationF4 Location
►2026-27
Mississippi
0
0
0.0000.00
—
—
—
—
—
Detroit, MI
►2025-26
Mississippi
15
20
0.4290.43
-1.1
-1.7
—
—
-0.92
No NCAA
Indianapolis, IN
►2024-25
Mississippi
24
12
0.6670.67
+7.1
+3.3
+0.98
#6
-0.75
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
S16
San Antonio, TX
►2023-24
Mississippi
20
12
0.6250.62
+2.1
+2.5
—
—
-1.47
No NCAA
Phoenix, AZ
►2022-23
Texas
7
1
0.8750.88
+9.7
+3.9
-2.27
#2
+0.93
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
R64
Houston, TX
►2021-22
Texas
22
12
0.6470.65
+4.2
-0.5
-0.02
#6
-1.06
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
R32
New Orleans, LA
►2020-21
Texas Tech
18
11
0.6210.62
+2.2
-2.0
-0.02
#6
-0.17
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
R32
Indianapolis, IN
►2019-20
Texas Tech
18
13
0.5810.58
+1.7
—
—
—
—
COVID
Atlanta, GA
►2018-19
Texas Tech
31
7
0.8160.82
+9.6
—
+3.21
#3
—
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
2nd
Minneapolis, MN
►2017-18
Texas Tech
27
10
0.7300.73
+7.3
—
+1.21
#3
—
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
E8
San Antonio, TX
►2016-17
Texas Tech
18
14
0.5620.56
+1.1
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Phoenix, AZ
►2015-16
Little Rock
30
5
0.8570.86
—
—
+0.52
#12
—
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
R32
Houston, TX
Abbreviations: R64=Round of 64, R32=Round of 32, S16=Sweet 16, E8=Elite 8, FF=Final Four, CG=Championship Game (runner-up or champion). 🏆 indicates a national title. Gold highlight = Final Four appearance or better.