5-season decay-weighted cover rate (most recent season weighted heaviest). Spread data from 2021–22 onward. HOT/COLD requires most recent season ≥ 10 games and >5 pts from weighted avg.
Cover %
55.9%
170 games
As Favorite
52.5%
120 games
As Underdog
58.0%
50 games
Recent Season
62.2%
2025-26
Current Season
62.2%
37 games · 2025-26
Trend
HOT
Covers the spread more often than not.
Season-by-season
Season
School
W
L
Win%
WAB
WAP
TASE
Seed
ATS
Furthest RoundNCAA
Final Four LocationF4 Location
►2026-27
Arkansas
0
0
0.0000.00
—
—
—
—
—
Detroit, MI
►2025-26
Arkansas
28
9
0.7570.76
+10.5
+4.3
+0.48
#4
+2.45
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
S16
Indianapolis, IN
►2024-25
Arkansas
22
14
0.6110.61
+4.2
+2.2
+1.42
#10
+1.04
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
S16
San Antonio, TX
►2023-24
Kentucky
23
10
0.6970.70
+3.6
+0.9
-1.79
#3
-0.33
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
R64
Phoenix, AZ
►2022-23
Kentucky
22
12
0.6470.65
+2.0
-1.1
-0.02
#6
-1.94
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
R32
Houston, TX
►2021-22
Kentucky
26
8
0.7650.76
+8.7
+1.7
-2.27
#2
+2.32
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
R64
New Orleans, LA
►2020-21
Kentucky
9
16
0.3600.36
-2.2
-5.0
—
—
+0.15
No NCAA
Indianapolis, IN
►2019-20
Kentucky
25
6
0.8060.81
+7.8
—
—
—
—
COVID
Atlanta, GA
►2018-19
Kentucky
30
7
0.8110.81
+11.3
—
+0.73
#2
—
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
E8
Minneapolis, MN
►2017-18
Kentucky
26
11
0.7030.70
+6.8
—
+0.88
#5
—
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
S16
San Antonio, TX
►2016-17
Kentucky
32
6
0.8420.84
+11.8
—
+0.73
#2
—
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
E8
Phoenix, AZ
►2015-16
Kentucky
27
9
0.7500.75
+7.2
—
-0.52
#4
—
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
R32
Houston, TX
►2014-15
Kentucky
38
1
0.9740.97
+16.4
—
+0.74
#1
—
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
F4
Indianapolis, IN
►2013-14
Kentucky
29
11
0.7250.72
+5.3
—
+4.31
#8
—
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
2nd
Arlington, TX
►2012-13
Kentucky
21
12
0.6360.64
+3.2
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Atlanta, GA
►2011-12
Kentucky
38
2
0.9500.95
+13.4
—
+2.74
#1
—
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
🏆
🏆
New Orleans, LA
►2010-11
Kentucky
29
9
0.7630.76
+7.6
—
+2.48
#4
—
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
F4
Houston, TX
►2009-10
Kentucky
35
3
0.9210.92
+13.0
—
-0.26
#1
—
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
E8
Indianapolis, IN
►2008-09
Memphis
33
4
0.8920.89
+11.3
—
-0.27
#2
—
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
S16
Detroit, MI
►2007-08
Memphis
38
2
0.9500.95
—
—
+1.74
#1
—
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
2nd
San Antonio, TX
►2006-07
Memphis
33
4
0.8920.89
+9.5
—
+0.73
#2
—
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
E8
Atlanta, GA
►2005-06
Memphis
33
4
0.8920.89
+10.4
—
-0.26
#1
—
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
E8
Indianapolis, IN
►2004-05
Memphis
22
16
0.5790.58
+0.0
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
St. Louis, MO
►2003-04
Memphis
22
8
0.7330.73
+5.7
—
+0.14
#7
—
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
R32
San Antonio, TX
►2002-03
Memphis
23
7
0.7670.77
—
—
-0.86
#7
—
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
R64
New Orleans, LA
►2001-02
Memphis
27
9
0.7500.75
+4.0
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Atlanta, GA
►2000-01
Memphis
21
15
0.5830.58
+0.3
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Minneapolis, MN
►1995-96
Massachusetts
35
2
0.9460.95
—
—
+0.74
#1
—
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
F4
East Rutherford, NJ
►1994-95
Massachusetts
29
5
0.8530.85
—
—
+0.73
#2
—
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
E8
Seattle, WA
►1993-94
Massachusetts
28
7
0.8000.80
—
—
-1.27
#2
—
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
R32
Charlotte, NC
►1992-93
Massachusetts
24
7
0.7740.77
—
—
-0.79
#3
—
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
R32
New Orleans, LA
►1991-92
Massachusetts
30
5
0.8570.86
—
—
+0.21
#3
—
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
S16
Minneapolis, MN
►1990-91
Massachusetts
20
13
0.6060.61
—
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Indianapolis, IN
►1989-90
Massachusetts
17
14
0.5480.55
—
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Denver, CO
►1988-89
Massachusetts
10
18
0.3570.36
—
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Seattle, WA
Abbreviations: R64=Round of 64, R32=Round of 32, S16=Sweet 16, E8=Elite 8, FF=Final Four, CG=Championship Game (runner-up or champion). 🏆 indicates a national title. Gold highlight = Final Four appearance or better.