5-season decay-weighted cover rate (most recent season weighted heaviest). Spread data from 2021–22 onward. HOT/COLD requires most recent season ≥ 10 games and >5 pts from weighted avg.
Cover %
50.5%
174 games
As Favorite
53.0%
134 games
As Underdog
46.2%
39 games
Recent Season
54.5%
2025-26
Current Season
54.5%
33 games · 2025-26
Near-neutral ATS record — close to a coin flip against the spread.
Season-by-season
Season
School
W
L
Win%
WAB
WAP
TASE
Seed
ATS
Furthest RoundNCAA
Final Four LocationF4 Location
►2025-26
North Carolina
24
9
0.7270.73
+8.0
+2.7
-1.02
#6
+1.08
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
R64
Indianapolis, IN
►2024-25
North Carolina
23
14
0.6220.62
+4.3
+0.2
+0.44
#11
+0.32
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
R64
San Antonio, TX
►2023-24
North Carolina
29
8
0.7840.78
+9.5
+3.9
-1.26
#1
+3.09
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
S16
Phoenix, AZ
►2022-23
North Carolina
20
13
0.6060.61
+1.2
-0.9
—
—
-2.05
No NCAA
Houston, TX
►2021-22
North Carolina
29
10
0.7440.74
+5.3
+6.0
+4.31
#8
+1.72
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
2nd
New Orleans, LA
Abbreviations: R64=Round of 64, R32=Round of 32, S16=Sweet 16, E8=Elite 8, FF=Final Four, CG=Championship Game (runner-up or champion). 🏆 indicates a national title. Gold highlight = Final Four appearance or better.