5-season decay-weighted cover rate (most recent season weighted heaviest). Spread data from 2021–22 onward. HOT/COLD requires most recent season ≥ 10 games and >5 pts from weighted avg.
Cover %
43.4%
157 games
As Favorite
47.6%
103 games
As Underdog
44.4%
54 games
Recent Season
31.2%
2025-26
Current Season
31.2%
32 games · 2025-26
Trend
COLD
Fails to cover the spread slightly more often than not.
Season-by-season
Season
School
W
L
Win%
WAB
WAP
TASE
Seed
ATS
Furthest RoundNCAA
Final Four LocationF4 Location
►2026-27
Mississippi St.
0
0
0.0000.00
—
—
—
—
—
Detroit, MI
►2025-26
Mississippi St.
13
19
0.4060.41
-2.1
-2.5
—
—
-3.91
No NCAA
Indianapolis, IN
►2024-25
Mississippi St.
21
13
0.6180.62
+6.0
-0.4
-0.69
#8
-1.92
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
R64
San Antonio, TX
►2023-24
Mississippi St.
21
14
0.6000.60
+3.3
-0.2
-0.69
#8
-0.49
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
R64
Phoenix, AZ
►2022-23
Mississippi St.
21
13
0.6180.62
+2.2
+0.5
-0.56
#11
-0.88
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
R64
Houston, TX
►2021-22
New Mexico St.
27
7
0.7940.79
+3.6
+4.9
+0.52
#12
+0.21
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
R32
New Orleans, LA
►2020-21
New Mexico St.
12
8
0.6000.60
-3.4
+0.8
—
—
+1.44
No NCAA
Indianapolis, IN
►2019-20
New Mexico St.
25
6
0.8060.81
+1.7
—
—
—
—
COVID
Atlanta, GA
►2018-19
New Mexico St.
30
5
0.8570.86
+5.4
—
-0.48
#12
—
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
R64
Minneapolis, MN
►2017-18
New Mexico St.
28
6
0.8240.82
+4.4
—
-0.48
#12
—
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
R64
San Antonio, TX
►2014-15
Bowling Green
21
12
0.6360.64
-0.4
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Indianapolis, IN
Abbreviations: R64=Round of 64, R32=Round of 32, S16=Sweet 16, E8=Elite 8, FF=Final Four, CG=Championship Game (runner-up or champion). 🏆 indicates a national title. Gold highlight = Final Four appearance or better.