5-season decay-weighted cover rate (most recent season weighted heaviest). Spread data from 2021–22 onward. HOT/COLD requires most recent season ≥ 10 games and >5 pts from weighted avg.
Cover %
43.7%
144 games
As Favorite
37.2%
51 games
As Underdog
50.0%
90 games
Recent Season
36.7%
2025-26
Current Season
36.7%
30 games · 2025-26
Trend
COLD
Fails to cover the spread slightly more often than not.
Season-by-season
Season
School
W
L
Win%
WAB
WAP
TASE
Seed
ATS
Furthest RoundNCAA
Final Four LocationF4 Location
►2025-26
Alabama St.
10
22
0.3120.31
-14.6
-3.8
—
—
-2.10
No NCAA
Indianapolis, IN
►2024-25
Alabama St.
20
16
0.5560.56
-7.2
+2.1
+0.99
#16
-0.50
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
R64
San Antonio, TX
►2023-24
Alabama St.
13
19
0.4060.41
-11.6
-2.3
—
—
-0.12
No NCAA
Phoenix, AZ
►2022-23
Alabama St.
8
23
0.2580.26
-15.2
-3.1
—
—
-1.64
No NCAA
Houston, TX
►2021-22
South Carolina St.
15
16
0.4840.48
-10.0
+2.1
—
—
+3.23
No NCAA
New Orleans, LA
►2017-18
Mississippi
1
4
0.2000.20
-4.0
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
San Antonio, TX
Abbreviations: R64=Round of 64, R32=Round of 32, S16=Sweet 16, E8=Elite 8, FF=Final Four, CG=Championship Game (runner-up or champion). 🏆 indicates a national title. Gold highlight = Final Four appearance or better.