5-season decay-weighted cover rate (most recent season weighted heaviest). Spread data from 2021–22 onward. HOT/COLD requires most recent season ≥ 10 games and >5 pts from weighted avg.
Cover %
53.7%
173 games
As Favorite
51.8%
139 games
As Underdog
67.7%
34 games
Recent Season
52.6%
2025-26
Current Season
52.6%
38 games · 2025-26
Covers the spread more often than not.
Season-by-season
Season
School
W
L
Win%
WAB
WAP
TASE
Seed
ATS
Furthest RoundNCAA
Final Four LocationF4 Location
►2025-26
Michigan
37
3
0.9250.93
+16.6
+6.3
+2.74
#1
+2.42
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
🏆
🏆
Indianapolis, IN
►2024-25
Michigan
27
10
0.7300.73
+9.2
+4.6
+0.88
#5
+1.42
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
S16
San Antonio, TX
►2023-24
Florida Atlantic
25
9
0.7350.74
+4.8
+1.0
-0.69
#8
-1.19
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
R64
Phoenix, AZ
►2022-23
Florida Atlantic
35
4
0.8970.90
+8.0
+9.2
+3.40
#9
+5.22
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
F4
Houston, TX
►2021-22
Florida Atlantic
19
15
0.5590.56
-4.6
-1.4
—
—
+2.22
No NCAA
New Orleans, LA
►2020-21
Florida Atlantic
13
10
0.5650.57
-4.6
-0.3
—
—
+5.31
No NCAA
Indianapolis, IN
►2019-20
Florida Atlantic
17
15
0.5310.53
-5.9
—
—
—
—
COVID
Atlanta, GA
►2018-19
Florida Atlantic
17
16
0.5150.52
-4.6
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Minneapolis, MN
Abbreviations: R64=Round of 64, R32=Round of 32, S16=Sweet 16, E8=Elite 8, FF=Final Four, CG=Championship Game (runner-up or champion). 🏆 indicates a national title. Gold highlight = Final Four appearance or better.