5-season decay-weighted cover rate (most recent season weighted heaviest). Spread data from 2021–22 onward. HOT/COLD requires most recent season ≥ 10 games and >5 pts from weighted avg.
Cover %
46.2%
167 games
As Favorite
49.5%
99 games
As Underdog
44.8%
67 games
Recent Season
45.2%
2025-26
Current Season
45.2%
31 games · 2025-26
Fails to cover the spread slightly more often than not.
Season-by-season
Season
School
W
L
Win%
WAB
WAP
TASE
Seed
ATS
Furthest RoundNCAA
Final Four LocationF4 Location
►2026-27
USC
0
0
0.0000.00
—
—
—
—
—
Detroit, MI
►2025-26
USC
18
14
0.5620.56
+1.5
-0.1
—
—
-3.63
No NCAA
Indianapolis, IN
►2024-25
USC
17
18
0.4860.49
-0.8
-1.0
—
—
+0.76
No NCAA
San Antonio, TX
►2023-24
Arkansas
16
17
0.4850.48
-2.1
-1.3
—
—
-3.27
No NCAA
Phoenix, AZ
►2022-23
Arkansas
22
14
0.6110.61
+2.2
-0.4
+1.31
#8
+0.18
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
S16
Houston, TX
►2021-22
Arkansas
28
9
0.7570.76
+7.2
+3.9
+1.48
#4
+0.61
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
E8
New Orleans, LA
►2020-21
Arkansas
25
7
0.7810.78
+6.6
+4.3
+1.21
#3
+1.85
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
E8
Indianapolis, IN
►2019-20
Arkansas
20
12
0.6250.62
+1.8
—
—
—
—
COVID
Atlanta, GA
►2018-19
Nevada
29
5
0.8530.85
+8.3
—
-0.86
#7
—
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
R64
Minneapolis, MN
►2017-18
Nevada
29
8
0.7840.78
+6.2
—
+1.14
#7
—
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
S16
San Antonio, TX
►2016-17
Nevada
28
7
0.8000.80
+5.3
—
-0.48
#12
—
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
R64
Phoenix, AZ
►2015-16
Nevada
24
14
0.6320.63
-2.1
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Houston, TX
Abbreviations: R64=Round of 64, R32=Round of 32, S16=Sweet 16, E8=Elite 8, FF=Final Four, CG=Championship Game (runner-up or champion). 🏆 indicates a national title. Gold highlight = Final Four appearance or better.