5-season decay-weighted cover rate (most recent season weighted heaviest). Spread data from 2021–22 onward. HOT/COLD requires most recent season ≥ 10 games and >5 pts from weighted avg.
Cover %
45.7%
154 games
As Favorite
45.2%
93 games
As Underdog
45.8%
59 games
Recent Season
50.0%
2025-26
Current Season
50.0%
30 games · 2025-26
Fails to cover the spread slightly more often than not.
Season-by-season
Season
School
W
L
Win%
WAB
WAP
TASE
Seed
ATS
Furthest RoundNCAA
Final Four LocationF4 Location
►2026-27
Southern Illinois
0
0
0.0000.00
—
—
—
—
—
Detroit, MI
►2025-26
Southern Illinois
16
16
0.5000.50
-5.7
-0.8
—
—
+0.75
No NCAA
Indianapolis, IN
►2024-25
Southern Illinois
14
19
0.4240.42
-8.3
-1.9
—
—
-0.84
No NCAA
San Antonio, TX
►2023-24
Wright St.
18
14
0.5620.56
-5.9
-1.9
—
—
-0.42
No NCAA
Phoenix, AZ
►2022-23
Wright St.
18
15
0.5450.55
-7.4
-1.6
—
—
-0.35
No NCAA
Houston, TX
►2021-22
Wright St.
22
14
0.6110.61
-5.6
+0.6
+0.99
#16
+0.35
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
R64
New Orleans, LA
►2020-21
Wright St.
18
6
0.7500.75
-1.0
-0.2
—
—
+4.81
No NCAA
Indianapolis, IN
►2019-20
Wright St.
25
7
0.7810.78
-0.4
—
—
—
—
COVID
Atlanta, GA
►2018-19
Wright St.
21
14
0.6000.60
-2.3
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Minneapolis, MN
►2017-18
Wright St.
25
10
0.7140.71
-0.7
—
-0.15
#14
—
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
R64
San Antonio, TX
►2016-17
Wright St.
20
12
0.6250.62
-3.4
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Phoenix, AZ
►2015-16
South Dakota St.
26
8
0.7650.76
+2.7
—
-0.48
#12
—
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
R64
Houston, TX
►2014-15
South Dakota St.
24
11
0.6860.69
-1.3
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Indianapolis, IN
►2013-14
South Dakota St.
19
13
0.5940.59
-2.7
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Arlington, TX
►2012-13
South Dakota St.
25
10
0.7140.71
+1.2
—
-0.24
#13
—
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
R64
Atlanta, GA
►2011-12
South Dakota St.
27
8
0.7710.77
+2.9
—
-0.15
#14
—
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
R64
New Orleans, LA
►2010-11
South Dakota St.
19
12
0.6130.61
-3.6
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Houston, TX
►2009-10
South Dakota St.
14
16
0.4670.47
-7.7
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Indianapolis, IN
►2008-09
South Dakota St.
13
20
0.3940.39
-9.4
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Detroit, MI
Abbreviations: R64=Round of 64, R32=Round of 32, S16=Sweet 16, E8=Elite 8, FF=Final Four, CG=Championship Game (runner-up or champion). 🏆 indicates a national title. Gold highlight = Final Four appearance or better.