5-season decay-weighted cover rate (most recent season weighted heaviest). Spread data from 2021–22 onward. HOT/COLD requires most recent season ≥ 10 games and >5 pts from weighted avg.
Cover %
40.2%
154 games
As Favorite
44.7%
38 games
As Underdog
42.2%
116 games
Recent Season
35.5%
2025-26
Current Season
35.5%
31 games · 2025-26
Struggles to cover the spread — well below average ATS.
Season-by-season
Season
School
W
L
Win%
WAB
WAP
TASE
Seed
ATS
Furthest RoundNCAA
Final Four LocationF4 Location
►2026-27
Air Force
0
0
0.0000.00
—
—
—
—
—
Detroit, MI
►2025-26
Air Force
3
17
0.1500.15
-16.3
-4.6
—
—
-5.34
No NCAA
Indianapolis, IN
►2024-25
Air Force
4
28
0.1250.12
-15.5
-6.4
—
—
-3.17
No NCAA
San Antonio, TX
►2023-24
Air Force
9
22
0.2900.29
-10.3
-4.3
—
—
-2.97
No NCAA
Phoenix, AZ
►2022-23
Air Force
14
18
0.4380.44
-6.7
-0.4
—
—
+2.05
No NCAA
Houston, TX
►2021-22
Air Force
11
18
0.3790.38
-7.4
+1.1
—
—
-1.09
No NCAA
New Orleans, LA
►2020-21
Air Force
5
20
0.2000.20
-11.0
-2.8
—
—
-4.78
No NCAA
Indianapolis, IN
►2015-16
Denver
16
15
0.5160.52
-6.6
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Houston, TX
►2014-15
Denver
12
18
0.4000.40
-9.2
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Indianapolis, IN
►2013-14
Denver
16
15
0.5160.52
-4.5
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Arlington, TX
►2012-13
Denver
22
10
0.6880.69
+1.5
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Atlanta, GA
►2011-12
Denver
22
9
0.7100.71
+0.6
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
New Orleans, LA
►2010-11
Denver
13
17
0.4330.43
-8.3
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Houston, TX
►2009-10
Denver
19
13
0.5940.59
-4.4
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Indianapolis, IN
►2008-09
Denver
15
16
0.4840.48
-8.1
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Detroit, MI
►2007-08
Denver
11
19
0.3670.37
—
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
San Antonio, TX
►2006-07
Princeton
11
17
0.3930.39
-10.0
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Atlanta, GA
►2005-06
Princeton
12
15
0.4440.44
-7.4
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Indianapolis, IN
►2004-05
Princeton
15
13
0.5360.54
-4.0
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
St. Louis, MO
►2003-04
Air Force
22
7
0.7590.76
+4.8
—
-0.56
#11
—
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
R64
San Antonio, TX
►2002-03
Air Force
12
16
0.4290.43
—
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
New Orleans, LA
►2001-02
Air Force
9
19
0.3210.32
-6.7
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Atlanta, GA
►2000-01
Air Force
8
21
0.2760.28
-9.5
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Minneapolis, MN
Abbreviations: R64=Round of 64, R32=Round of 32, S16=Sweet 16, E8=Elite 8, FF=Final Four, CG=Championship Game (runner-up or champion). 🏆 indicates a national title. Gold highlight = Final Four appearance or better.