5-season decay-weighted cover rate (most recent season weighted heaviest). Spread data from 2021–22 onward. HOT/COLD requires most recent season ≥ 10 games and >5 pts from weighted avg.
Cover %
46.8%
141 games
As Favorite
52.4%
84 games
As Underdog
39.3%
56 games
Recent Season
40.6%
2025-26
Current Season
40.6%
32 games · 2025-26
Trend
COLD
Fails to cover the spread slightly more often than not.
Season-by-season
Season
School
W
L
Win%
WAB
WAP
TASE
Seed
ATS
Furthest RoundNCAA
Final Four LocationF4 Location
►2026-27
James Madison
0
0
0.0000.00
—
—
—
—
—
Detroit, MI
►2025-26
James Madison
18
15
0.5450.55
-6.7
+0.4
—
—
-0.45
No NCAA
Indianapolis, IN
►2024-25
James Madison
20
12
0.6250.62
-4.1
+0.6
—
—
-2.48
No NCAA
San Antonio, TX
►2023-24
Morehead St.
26
9
0.7430.74
-0.1
+4.2
-0.15
#14
+3.81
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
R64
Phoenix, AZ
►2022-23
Morehead St.
22
12
0.6470.65
-3.7
+4.3
—
—
-0.57
No NCAA
Houston, TX
►2021-22
Morehead St.
23
11
0.6760.68
-1.2
+2.0
—
—
+1.79
No NCAA
New Orleans, LA
►2020-21
Morehead St.
23
8
0.7420.74
+0.7
+5.7
-0.15
#14
+7.91
R64
R32
S16
E8
FF
CG
R64
Indianapolis, IN
►2019-20
Morehead St.
13
19
0.4060.41
-11.7
—
—
—
—
COVID
Atlanta, GA
►2018-19
Morehead St.
13
20
0.3940.39
-9.3
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Minneapolis, MN
►2017-18
Morehead St.
8
21
0.2760.28
-12.0
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
San Antonio, TX
►2016-17
Morehead St.
12
9
0.5710.57
-7.3
—
—
—
—
No NCAA
Phoenix, AZ
Abbreviations: R64=Round of 64, R32=Round of 32, S16=Sweet 16, E8=Elite 8, FF=Final Four, CG=Championship Game (runner-up or champion). 🏆 indicates a national title. Gold highlight = Final Four appearance or better.